Did you know that losing $1000 and then winning $900 (i.e. getting a result of -$100 in total) is more pleasant than winning $1000 and then losing $900 (i.e. getting a result of +$100 in total)!??
What has happened in the RECENT PAST drives our emotional response much more than how we are doing overall! It is a problem if you are making important prediction.
There are to ways to overcome this problem:
- Use The Buddy System
- Recruit future yourself!…
Our Rational Answer books club has selected a book for February. It is “Thinking in Bets” by Annie Duke: https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Bets-Making-Smarter-Decisions-ebook/dp/B074DG9LQF
This book is written by a multi-million dollar poker tournaments winner (and her brother is also a multi-million dollar poker tournaments winner - so it’s a family business ;))
She teaches how to apply poker thinking to make decisions in financial markets, strategic planning, human resources, law, entrepreneurship…
Final chapter 6 covers how to recruit future yourself and how to deal with related problems:
- A 10-10-10 tool
- Dealing with TILT
- PRECOMMIT to induce Barrier-inducing contract or Barrier-reducing contract
- Decision “swear jar” (watch-out words for truthseeking group - if you are working ia a group)
- Mapping the future: Scenario planning, Backcasting, and Premortems
- Avoiding hindsight bias
Sharing my mind map with all the details as usual: