Outcome

Did you know that losing $1000 and then winning $900 (i.e. getting a result of -$100 in total) is more pleasant than winning $1000 and then losing $900 (i.e. getting a result of +$100 in total)!??

What has happened in the RECENT PAST drives our emotional response much more than how we are doing overall! It is a problem if you are making important prediction.

There are to ways to overcome this problem:

How people should learn by watching outcomes and why they do not learn?

There are many unknown circumstances - so we do not know the real cause of the outcome. Luck also plays a big part here, so we don’t know if it’s luck or skill.

Also we are distorted with our biases:

• self-serving bias
• and inverted self-serving bias

How to overcome our biases and learn better?