Management and Efficiency

Thinking in Bets - Chapter 3 - Bet to learn

Thinking in Bets - Chapter 3 - Bet to learn

Translations: RU

How people should learn by watching outcomes and why they do not learn?

There are many unknown circumstances - so we do not know the real cause of the outcome. Luck also plays a big part here, so we don’t know if it’s luck or skill.

Also we are distorted with our biases:

  • self-serving bias
  • and inverted self-serving bias

How to overcome our biases and learn better?

Thinking in Bets - Chapter 2 - Wanna bet?

Thinking in Bets - Chapter 2 - Wanna bet?

Translations: RU

Poker players make decisions by making bets. Why do we all need to learn to make decisions using bets too?

There is a trap of “Motivated reasoning” bias. But, fortunately, there are facilitating questions that direct our minds in the right direction.

We must also move away from using the all-or-nothing confidence scale. Instead, we must learn to measure our confidence in percentages. This will not only help us win more, but it will also make us more credible communicators and make teamwork around us more efficient.

Communication Genius - Lesson 7 - I-message

Communication Genius - Lesson 7 - I-message

Translations: RU

It is impossible to live without conflicts. But how to make the conflict constructive?

Thomas Gordon, author of “Parent Effectiveness Training”, invented the “I-message” that is now taught in many business education programs. Lesson 8 of Communication Genius describes I-message in detail:

  • What NOT to say during conflicts
  • What is the I-message
  • What is the structure of the I-message
Thinking in Bets - Chapter 1 - Life is Poker, not Chess

Thinking in Bets - Chapter 1 - Life is Poker, not Chess

Translations: RU

Our Rational Answer books club has selected a book for February. It is “Thinking in Bets” by Annie Duke: https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Bets-Making-Smarter-Decisions-ebook/dp/B074DG9LQF

This book is written by a multi-million dollar poker tournaments winner (and her brother is also a multi-million dollar poker tournaments winner - so it’s a family business ;))

She teaches how to apply poker thinking to make decisions in financial markets, strategic planning, human resources, law, entrepreneurship…

Noise - Part III - Noise in Predictive Judgments

Noise - Part III - Noise in Predictive Judgments

Translations: RU

How to measure the noise in our daily decisions?

Which is better - expert judgment or mechanical prediction using very simple models/rules? Surprisingly, the model of you beats you! Even a simple regression model based on your past decisions!

How to make rules/models even less noisy? How can rules/models become more biased sometimes?

Why don’t people always use models (if they are so good) and still rely on their bad judgment?

When do we not need models?

Communication Genius - Lesson 3 - Toasting

Communication Genius - Lesson 3 - Toasting

Translations: RU

I continue sharing my impression and knowledge from the Communication Genius course which I started in January 2022. Lesson 3 is full of useful information concerning SAYING TOASTS. There are tips what to say to be remembered and some phrases which sound good during eating and drinking in informal atmosphere.