Management and Efficiency

Noise - Part III - Noise in Predictive Judgments

Noise - Part III - Noise in Predictive Judgments

Translations: RU

How to measure the noise in our daily decisions?

Which is better - expert judgment or mechanical prediction using very simple models/rules? Surprisingly, the model of you beats you! Even a simple regression model based on your past decisions!

How to make rules/models even less noisy? How can rules/models become more biased sometimes?

Why don’t people always use models (if they are so good) and still rely on their bad judgment?

When do we not need models?

Communication Genius - Lesson 3 - Toasting

Communication Genius - Lesson 3 - Toasting

Translations: RU

I continue sharing my impression and knowledge from the Communication Genius course which I started in January 2022. Lesson 3 is full of useful information concerning SAYING TOASTS. There are tips what to say to be remembered and some phrases which sound good during eating and drinking in informal atmosphere.

Communication Genius - Lesson 2 - Elevator pitch

Communication Genius - Lesson 2 - Elevator pitch

Translations: RU

In January 2022, I started the Communication Genius course from one of the best public speaking coaches. Lesson 2 is full of simple but efficient instructions how to communicate quickly in a stressful situation (ELEVATOR PITCH). There are tips what to say and there are also some things which are better not to use in a quick conversation.

Communication Genius - Lesson 1 - Communication preparation algorithm

Communication Genius - Lesson 1 - Communication preparation algorithm

Translations: RU

In January 2022, I started the Communication Genius course from one of the best public speaking coaches - to be a bit less toxic and more efficient 🙂

Lesson 1 discovers:

  • What is the purpose of communication?
  • What are the two parts of success?
  • Why should you clearly define and write down your real goal?
  • How to consider your Audience?
  • What is the Format and its elements: Time, Place, Dress Code and Genre and how to use them?
  • How to choose the right Moment? Examples of good and bad moments?
Noise - Part II - Your Mind is a Measuring Instrument

Noise - Part II - Your Mind is a Measuring Instrument

Translations: RU

Interesting to learn how your mind makes judgments. Two types of judgments: predictive and evaluative. How to measure errors from bias and noise. How to measure the cost of noise. And how to deal with catastrophic consequences.

Drilling down the noise to three components: system noise, level noise, and pattern noise. How to measure (and compensate) the noises. Occasional noise as a part of pattern noise. How to compensate occasional noise: wisdom-of-crowds effect, crowd-within-the-one effect, second answer effect, and dialectical bootstrapping tool.

How the group work influences the noise. Informational cascade and social pressure cascade. How to deal with them. The effect of group polarization.

Noise - Part I - Finding Noise

Noise - Part I - Finding Noise

Translations: RU

Do you realize how seriously your organization is affected by bad decisions? There are two types of errors in human judgments: Bias and Noise. Bias is a very widely recognized problem, and you definitely heard about it. Noise is not so widely recognized. Yet, it affects MANY decisions in ALL the industries.

There is a huge Noise in government decisions. There is a huge Noise in commercial companies.

Noise can be made visible and can be reduced. It is harder to measure the noise in unique singular decisions, but it is still there and it still can be reduced.