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Thinking in Bets - Chapter 3 - Bet to learn

Thinking in Bets - Chapter 3 - Bet to learn

Translations: RU

How people should learn by watching outcomes and why they do not learn?

There are many unknown circumstances - so we do not know the real cause of the outcome. Luck also plays a big part here, so we don’t know if it’s luck or skill.

Also we are distorted with our biases:

  • self-serving bias
  • and inverted self-serving bias

How to overcome our biases and learn better?

Thinking in Bets - Chapter 2 - Wanna bet?

Thinking in Bets - Chapter 2 - Wanna bet?

Translations: RU

Poker players make decisions by making bets. Why do we all need to learn to make decisions using bets too?

There is a trap of “Motivated reasoning” bias. But, fortunately, there are facilitating questions that direct our minds in the right direction.

We must also move away from using the all-or-nothing confidence scale. Instead, we must learn to measure our confidence in percentages. This will not only help us win more, but it will also make us more credible communicators and make teamwork around us more efficient.